Fewer than one-third of Canadians think Lewis's NDP is 'relevant,' poll finds

OTTAWA — Avi Lewis may be flush off a convincing victory within his party , but a new poll suggests the new NDP leader has a steep hill to climb with the broader electorate with more people thinking the party is irrelevant than relevant.

Not quite a third of Canadians believe that the left-leaning party is even relevant, never mind if they would consider voting for the New Democrats, a Postmedia-Leger poll released Wednesday found .

The poll, conducted between March 27 and 30 as NDP supporters gathered in Winnipeg to choose their new leader, found that 42 per cent of respondents said Lewis’s party is not relevant, and 26 per cent said they were unsure. That compares with just 32 per cent of respondents who said that the NDP is relevant.

Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president, said the latest poll results are further evidence of the NDP’s declining support over the last few years, particularly since agreeing to a deal to support Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in 2022.

The deal meant that the NDP would back the Liberals, who had a minority government, on key votes such as federal budgets and other confidence votes in exchange for legislative action on issues such as dental care, pharmacare and affordability.

But the agreement seemed to affect NDP support, said Enns, with some voters viewing Jagmeet Singh’s party as a “subsidiary” of the Liberals. “It kept them on the sidelines.”

The new poll also shows the NDP’s challenge from a wider view with just six per cent of voters’ support, up one percentage point from the previous Leger poll in early March but miles behind the governing Liberals at a lofty 48 per cent and the Conservatives at 34 per cent, both down one percentage point. The NDP is even behind the Bloc Québécois, the sovereigntist party that runs candidates in just one province and which sits at seven per cent, up two percentage points. The Green Party remains at three per cent.

The NDP’s decline in the polls lines up with last year’s inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, who almost immediately after taking office began threatening Canada’s economy and sovereignty. The NDP was supported by 16 per cent of Canadians near the end of January 2025 and had consistently polled between 15 and 20 per cent since the end of 2021.

Perhaps the biggest short-term challenge for the NDP and the other opposition parties is that most Canadians (57 per cent), according to the new Leger poll, are satisfied with the federal government’s performance, compared to 34 per cent who say they’re dissatisfied. And a majority (58 per cent) say they approve of Prime Minister Mark Carney, while 33 per cent disapprove.

Lori Turnbull, a political scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, said political parties often make quick gains in the polls after a new leader has been elected, but it’s unclear if that will happen this time with the NDP. Lewis needs to build support within his caucus and throughout the national party as first steps, Turnbull said.

“I’m not sure how much of a bump they’ll get.”

Lewis has already shown signs that he intends to try to build bridges, saying on the weekend after his win that  he’d be delighted to take advice from Singh , even though his predecessor was at the helm as the party was reduced to seven seats during the last federal election.

Enns said the silver lining for the left-leaning party is that voters are much more likely to support the New Democrats at the provincial level. The NDP is in power in British Columbia, under Premier David Eby, and in Manitoba, under Wab Kinew, and is the official opposition in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The poll included a sample of 1,618 respondents, Canadians over the age of 18. The survey has a margin of error of no more than 2.44 per cent 19 times out of 20.

National Post

stuck@postmedia.com

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