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Greenland Is on the Brink. Canada Is Nowhere in Sight
It seems the world can shift into the unimaginable these days at the blink of an eye, the geopolitical version of The Twilight Zone. We are now talking seriously about NATO-on-NATO conflict, about war over Greenland, about the end of eighty years of the world’s most successful collective security alliance.
The latest developments are ominous. Talks in Washington on the future of Greenland between Denmark’s foreign minister, his Greenlandic counterpart, and a United States team led by Vice President J. D. Vance were inconclusive. A dangerous stalemate has emerged. The delegation from the Kingdom of Denmark failed to convince US officials to back off talk of annexing Greenland. The Danish foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said there remained a “fundamental disagreement” with the US. Rasmussen told a press conference, “We didn’t manage to change the American position. It’s clear that the president has this wish of conquering over Greenland.”
US president Donald Trump’s stated concerns are about security threats to Greenland, including a repeated mention of Russian and Chinese shops “swarming around.” There is no evidence of that. Trump has also expressed a lack of faith in NATO’s military strength. He says if the US doesn’t take over Greenland, Russia and China will. In reality, neither have any capacity or interest in doing so.
When reminded by Danish officials of the fact that the US, under its defence treaty with the Kingdom of Denmark, could expand its own presence on the island, he has said for that to happen, he doesn’t want a military lease, he wants ownership. That’s the real estate guy talking. There is also the lure of critical mineral wealth in Greenland, even if it is locked away under the ice, and US mining companies have shown little interest.
Beyond all these calculations, there are the unknowns of Trump’s dreams—maybe for a legacy acquisition of territory unlike anything seen since the US bought Alaska from a cash-strapped Russian empire, still reeling from its defeat in the Crimean War, in 1867.
Does Trump have a field marshal’s baton burning in his back pocket? Is there a dream of more flash military victories, like the raid on Venezuela or the air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities?
Is there the dream of generating a gigantic distraction from domestic political troubles over such things as Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deployments and the cesspit of the Epstein files?
In the aftermath of the talks in Washington, a hastily organized Danish military exercise involving several NATO countries has been mounted, called “Operation Arctic Endurance.” The title is meant to be symbolic of a broader NATO commitment still to come. To begin, under the banner of Arctic Endurance, Germany, France, Sweden, and Norway will all send small contingents to Greenland, primarily as an advance force to assess what additional NATO military presence on the island might be needed to assuage Trump’s imaginary concerns about Greenland’s security vulnerabilities. The Netherlands and Finland have also been mentioned as planning to send troops to Greenland. Altogether, a band of six nations showing solidarity with Denmark, possibly more in the days ahead.
In addition to showing a determination on the part of NATO to boost the defences of Greenland, the deployment of a small, European contingent is also meant to act as a deterrent against any hasty or ill-considered measures by the Trump administration. As a senior French diplomat was quoted as saying, “We’ll show the US that NATO is present.”
The Danish prime minister has made it very clear, icily clear, to the Trump administration that any use of force against it as a NATO partner in order to acquire Greenland would mean the end of NATO, and the end of nearly eighty years of collective security in the Euro-Atlantic region, with catastrophic consequences for global peace and stability. Other European leaders have said the same, including, most recently, the Polish prime minister Donald Tusk.
And Canada?
Our stance is unclear. Some media reporting has named Canada as a country that will take part in Operation Arctic Endurance. However, Politico quotes the press secretary in the Office of the Minister of National Defence as saying: “As of this moment, the Canadian Armed Forces are not initiating any new operations in Greenland.” The Toronto Star has reported a similar conclusion.
It’s a fast-moving situation, and Prime Minister Mark Carney is in China, complicating decision making.
Will we, won’t we commit troops to Operation Arctic Endurance? Either way, a public explanation is needed, especially if it turns out we won’t.
To fail to turn up with our own small military contingent to join NATO allies would be a dumbfounding decision. Canada is, after all, the world’s second-largest Arctic nation. Our 2024 defence strategy, “Our North, Strong and Free,” was geared to the promise of Arctic security as vital to Canada’s sovereignty. Surely, we haven’t turned our back on geographic reality and strategic doctrine. Compared to many of the NATO countries who have promised to send forces to Greenland, we actually have decades of experience in training and exercising in Arctic conditions and gear to match. We invented the snowmobile, after all.
What is true is that Canada has been remarkably invisible in the NATO conversation over what needs to be done to secure Greenland. That’s an invisibility cloak we are going to have to shed, quicky, even if we have to get the prime minister on the blower in Beijing.
Adapted from “Will we, won’t we: CAF to Greenland?” by Wesley Wark (Substack). Reprinted with permission of the author.
The post Greenland Is on the Brink. Canada Is Nowhere in Sight first appeared on The Walrus.
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