Disruptions on the Horizon

Foreword

In recent years, the world has experienced significant disruptions—the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Israel and Hamas conflict, extreme climate disasters, the surging cost of living, and global supply chain interruptions.

Predicting the next big upheaval may not be possible, but it is crucial to explore possible disruptions and anticipate potential future scenarios. Even seemingly distant or improbable events and circumstances can suddenly become reality, while overlapping disruptions can lead to compounded societal impacts.

Policy Horizons Canada (Policy Horizons) is committed to supporting the Government of Canada’s decision makers in navigating these uncertainties. We identify and explore potential disruptions to enable the creation of robust and resilient policies. Our “Disruptions on the horizon” work is a key part of our mission.

We hope you find this report insightful and thought-provoking. On behalf of Policy Horizons, I would like to thank the people who generously shared their time, knowledge, and thoughts with us.

Kristel Van der Elst, Director General, Policy Horizons Canada

Introduction

Today, the world faces multiple complex crises that can contribute to unexpected disruptions. The Disruptions on the Horizon report stems from a critical question many decision makers grapple with: what disruptions should we anticipate next?

The Disruptions on the Horizon 2024 report identifies and assesses 35 disruptions for which Canada may need to prepare and explores some of the interconnections between them. These disruptions are potential events and circumstances that could affect our society and the way it functions, as well as the way people live, work, and connect. Their impacts can be perceived as positive or negative, depending on one’s perspective.

While the disruptions presented in this report are not guaranteed to occur, they are plausible. Neglecting to consider them may lead to policy failure and missed opportunities. Thinking through possible disruptions when developing policies, programs, and strategies could help seize opportunities, navigate impacts, and minimize risks.

Read or download the full report PDF below > 

DISCLAIMER

Policy Horizons Canada (Policy Horizons) is the Government of Canada’s centre of excellence in foresight. Our mandate is to empower the Government of Canada with a future-oriented mindset and outlook to strengthen decision making. The content of this document does not necessarily represent the views of the Government of Canada, or participating departments and agencies.

The content of this document does not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of Canada, or participating departments and agencies.