EKOS Politics: Historic 2025 Canadian Federal Election Concludes amid Deepened Polarization

Executive summary: Rise of populism in Canada

1. Polarization and populism* in Canada are not “fringe” and their depth should not be underestimated >>

• In the most recent election, populist forces gained record vote support and nearly formed government

• If the campaign had gone or for another week and/or if younger, disaffected male voters had shown up in the same numbers as moderate open voters, we might have witnessed a Conservative win, driven in large part by right-wing populists (plus some traditional “status quo” Conservatives who do not share the mistrust and disinformation of the populist base)

2. Most Canadians underestimate the scale and nature of this force >>

• This is not traditional status-quo conservatism

3. The demographic bases are very different from the underpinnings of traditional status-quo conservatism >>

• Younger, not older

• Overwhelmingly male, not female

• Centred on college-educated, not university-educated

• Stronger in working-class, not middle-class Canada

4. In terms of psychographics (i.e., values and beliefs that influence behaviour), the divide is even stronger >>

• Extremely high institutional mistrust

• High incidence of disinformation on vaccines, climate change, and geopolitics

• Deep economic pessimism and sense of declining intergenerational mobility

• Feelings of alienation from traditional narratives of progress

• Trump 2.0 seen as benign or even positive by this cohort

• Issues like tariffs or annexation are low priorities for them

>> Read the full report below for more...