Cuba braces for worst: Tensions rising between Washington, Havana

Shortly after the American military operation to capture left-wing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a key regional ally of Cuba, large-scale protests were organized in front of the  American embassy in Havana, encouraged by the Cuban government.

The speakers, who included Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, called for the liberation of Maduro from American custody and an end to “yankee imperialism.”

The Cuban government confirmed  that 32 members of the Cuban armed forces and intelligence agencies were killed in the American operation. Both Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, reportedly  made extensive use of Cuban intelligence services and bodyguards for personal protection and the consolidation of internal political power.

Prominent American leaders, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Senator Lindsey Graham, have suggested that Cuba may be next on the American chopping block.

Rubio warned  in a press conference held on Saturday that “If I lived in Havana, and I was in the government, I’d be concerned – at least a little bit.”

Graham, speaking on Sunday, accused  Cuba of being a “Communist dictatorship that’s killed priests and nuns … their days are numbered.”

Conversely, President Donald Trump has suggested  that a targeted regime change operation may not be necessary to bring about political change in Cuba. According to the American president, Cuba “now has no income” following the removal of Maduro and the expected reduction in the oil supply from Venezuela to Cuba. Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba, despite having decreased in recent years, have long helped  to sustain the Cuban economy in times of crisis.

However, not all are convinced by Trump’s assumption that Cuba would be an easy target. Helen Yaffe, a professor of Latin American political economy at the University of Glasgow and co-host of the Cuba Analysis podcast, told National Post that “it is inconceivable … that there is enough opposition (to the current government) in Cuba” to allow for a smooth regime change operation.

The economic strategy, Yaffe points out, has also yielded little success thus far: “Since 1960 the U.S. has pursued a strategy to bring about the complete economic suffocation of Cuba in order to precipitate regime change.”

The decades-long U.S. embargo against Cuba has indeed failed  in its fundamental aim of toppling the communist government on the island even in the most economically testing of times. Sanctions, for example, didn’t cripple Cuba during the 1990s, after the country lost access  to the favourable Soviet market and before the historic oil agreement  between Fidel Castro’s Cuba and Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela.

Given that history, Yaffe contends that “the Cubans wrote the rule book on resilience” and therefore should not be underestimated.

Alian Collazo, a former Republican candidate for the Florida House of Representatives and current executive director of Cuban Freedom March, holds a different view. Collazo, who was born in Cuba but now lives in the U.S., spoke to National Post about the importance of Maduro’s removal for the Cuban opposition movement.

Maduro’s forced exile to the U.S. “helps Cuba greatly,” he argues. The absence of a Venezuelan government that “funnels oil revenue into … the dictatorship in Havana,” which is then, according to Collazo, used to “fill the coffers” of Cuban government functionaries and fund “repression … against the Cuban people” would be a particularly positive development in his eyes.

Also, Collazo believes that political pressure on Cuba to embrace multi-party democracy and economic liberalization will likely gain momentum after Maduro’s removal. The salient message for Cuba’s political leadership after the Maduro operation, Collazo summarizes, is reform and democratize or “you guys could be next.”

However, both Collazo and Yaffe recognize that Maduro’s exit does not necessarily spell the end of the current Venezuelan political system. Collazo stresses that the structures propping up Maduro “are still there … and need to go.”

Yaffe also argues that it is highly unlikely that the Venezuelan political establishment has significantly “transferred allegiance to the U.S.” and away from Maduro and revolutionary Bolivarianism. As the British professor notes, Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez, acting president in Maduro’s absence, was unequivocal in her demand for Maduro’s “immediate” release and description of the American operation as an “illegal and illegitimate” kidnapping.

• Marco Rubio to lead energy, financial and military reforms in Venezuela
• After Venezuela, what new targets could Trump be eyeing next?

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