The failure of the Meech Lake Accord, an initiative created and lead by former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney (1939 - 2024), brought about the creation of the Bloc Quebecois, a new political party that represents only Quebecers in Canada's parliament.
Mulroney had won the only real majority government in my lifetime in 1984 by stitching together a coalition of traditional Conservatives and malcontents from across the country, including separatists from the province of Quebec. When the Meech Lake Accord fell apart, a block of Quebec separatist MPs split off from the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada and the Liberal Party of Canada to form a new political party called the Bloc Quebecois.
This type of action is called 'crossing-the-floor' in a parliamentary democracy like Canada’s. It happens more often when one Member of Parliament (MP) crosses-the-floor to join another party, or to sit as an Independent. But, in this instance, it was_ MPs from one province joining together to form their own new political party. Ever since the Bloc Quebecois has represented the interests of Quebecers in the House of Commons in Ottawa, the nation’s capital. The House of Commons is like the House of Representatives in the United States. The Bloc Quebecois still exists today.
Stepping outside the Primary process to hold the Balance of Power
Donald Trump’s victory turned out to be smaller and less convincing than many had originally thought. Earning less than 50% of the popular vote and with a winning margin of only 1.5%, Trump’s victory is as thin as the Republican control of the House and Senate.
Given he and Elon Musk have already threatened sitting non-MAGA GOP representatives with Primary challenges in the next election, choosing the nuclear option before even taking office, the situation inside the Republican Party is ripe for discord.
If non-MAGA Republicans in both Houses cross-the-floor and leave to form their own party like the Bloc Quebecois did in Canada, or even to sit as aligned-Independents, they can skip the entire GOP Primary process altogether, opting to face a MAGA candidate head-on in the next federal election. They can also hold the balance of power in both the House and Senate for the next two years, because of the very slim Republican majorities. Either way, right now, this group of Republican legislators will hold the balance of power come Jan. 20, 2025.
Last week’s vote in the House of Representatives to fund the government into the new year laid bare the differences between Trump’s MAGA representatives and traditional conservative Republicans. 38 Republicans turned down the Trump-Musk proposal after Trump and Musk demanded the Bill be scrapped until after Jan. 20 when Trump is inaugurated. Trump’s demand for the debt-ceiling to be raised goes against traditional conservative fiscal values. Not surprisingly, the fiscal conservative Republicans baulked, causing Trump’s endorsed Bill to fail.
A wrench to tighten the bolts of democracy
Breaking away to form their own party would allow traditional conservative Republicans to return to their roots of good fiscal management, something that is inexplicably being discarded by Trump. It also allows them to hold the balance of power in both the House and Senate, ensuring their interests are always taken into account. And, while it would mean the Democrats would become the Majority leaders in Congress, because they don't command a majority by themselves, the Democrats could not pass anything without support from the new fiscal conservative party. Most importantly, it means Donald Trump could not get any legislation passed without their support. Essentially watering down the more extreme parts of his agenda.
Timing
Breaking away to form your own party requires a strong backbone. Having floated this idea on social media, you won’t be surprised to learn some people dismissed it because they think these people will roll-over—That they are not strong enough to take this action. Yet, they proved they are strong enough just this week in the House. Something I believe they will continue to do in the Senate when it comes to affirming many of Trump’s cabinet appointees. I can think of at least five of his candidates who should be refused confirmation.
Support for Ukraine will also be a big test for the US Congress because if Trump decides to appease Putin by stopping military funding to Ukraine, something that runs contrary to the will of the majority in both the House and Senate. Without the support of the conservative Republicans, MAGA will have difficulty opposing a Bill if it were to come to the House floor. Granted Trump could just veto it, but doing so would look very, very bad.
Given the obvious policy conflicts between the two factions inside the Republican party, the question now is more 'when will the split happen' rather than 'if it should happen'. Rather, should they announce it right away or should they wait, like the Bloc Québécois MPs did, for Trump to be at his most vulnerable before pulling the trigger? Time will tell.
—James O’Grady, Concerned Canadian
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